Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 08:59:01 ACUS48 KWNS 190858 SWOD48 SPC AC 190857 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday, as a cold front advances quickly eastward into the Atlantic Coastal states. Although instability is forecast to remain weak ahead of the front, thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible during the day. Any threat will probably be greatest in the Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas, where surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F in the afternoon. On Sunday, an area of high pressure will likely settle into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The potential for thunderstorms should be low over most of the United States due to a relatively dry airmass in place. ....Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... Low-level flow will likely increase across the southern Plains on Monday, as a upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. In response, moisture return will likely begin on Monday, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across the Texas Coastal Plain. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some possibly associated with hail, could develop from Monday evening into the overnight in parts of the central Plains along and near the northern edge of the low-level jet. Moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday as the upper-level trough approaches from the west. Isolated to scattered severe storms appear possible near and to the east of the dryline in the late afternoon and evening. There are substantial differences among the medium-range models concerning Tuesday. If the solutions come into better agreement, and the models continue to show potential for a severe weather event, then a threat area could be added into the southern Plains in later outlooks. On Wednesday, the models suggest a cold front will advance southeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, as the upper-level trough moves into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front, and eastward across parts of the moist sector in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible in some areas. However, for Tuesday and Wednesday, predictability is low, mainly due to uncertainties concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. ...Broyles.. 04/19/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .