Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 07:44:12

FOUS30 KWBC 190744
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Wed Apr 19 2023 - 12Z Wed Apr 19 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Elevated convection developed overnight and is persisting this
morning across the eastern Dakotas, Iowa and Minnesota
 where there was decent instability rooted above a strong low
level inversion, a mid level shortwave approaching the area, and
strong upper level diffluence. Much of this region has wet
antecedent conditions, as much as 400 to 600% of normal the past
week. Additional showers and thunderstorms are ahead the cold
front tracking through eastern portions of the Central Plains
before expanding southwest to northeast through the night from
eastern Kansas through Wisconsin. Some the stronger instability
and lift will be nosing into Kansas and Missouri which favors
higher QPF to setup from eastern Kansas through southern Iowa.

There is a risk for rainfall rates over 1"/hr per the 12Z HREF.
While KS will have the most instability, antecedent conditions are
most favorable for flash flooding in Wisconsin due to added
snowmelt from the recent winter storm over the western half of the
state. Thus if FFG is able to be exceeded, we could realize some
lower end flood impacts, especially over any more susceptible
areas. The Marginal Risk area already in effect highlights where
there is an elevated threat for excessive rainfall. Minor tweaks
were made to reflect the latest trends.

Campbell



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9XYLA33l3niRV7IF_J07ZkB20SDOnd75Kveamf-Az0Qg=
R_EadhDt9O7R5pBrmVto_FthpXf2kMUhetv1Hf1sA1zAbjE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9XYLA33l3niRV7IF_J07ZkB20SDOnd75Kveamf-Az0Qg=
R_EadhDt9O7R5pBrmVto_FthpXf2kMUhetv1Hf1scF3PLLw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9XYLA33l3niRV7IF_J07ZkB20SDOnd75Kveamf-Az0Qg=
R_EadhDt9O7R5pBrmVto_FthpXf2kMUhetv1Hf1s8wuPU-w$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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