Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 19 2023 07:32:30

ACUS03 KWNS 190732
SWODY3
SPC AC 190731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and hail will be possible
on Friday across parts the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain into
western Louisiana.

....Middle to Upper Texas Coast/Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley...

An upper-level trough will move through the Great Plains on Friday,
as a cold front advances southeastward through the southern Plains
and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F will likely contribute to moderate destabilization
across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into western Louisiana. The
distribution of instability will depend on the position of outflow
boundaries from the previous night. Thunderstorms could be ongoing
in the morning, but as surface temperatures warm, continued storm
development is expected during the afternoon, especially along
outflow boundaries.

Model forecasts during the afternoon suggest that the strongest
instability could be to the west of the Houston area, where MLCAPE
could reach near 3500 J/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to
be near 40 knots, suggesting that supercells will be possible.
700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, evident on forecast soundings,
would support large hail formation with the stronger updrafts. Steep
low-level lapse rates would also promote a wind damage potential
with supercells, and also along the leading edge of multicell line
segments.

Further northeast into northern sections of the lower Mississippi
Valley, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southeastward into
eastern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi by early afternoon.
Warming surface temperatures along and ahead of the front will
likely result in weak destabilization. This, combined with 0-6 km
shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, should be sufficient for a
marginal severe threat, mainly in areas where low-level lapse rates
become steepest.

...Broyles.. 04/19/2023

$$

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