Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0554
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 18 2023 22:37:56

ACUS11 KWNS 182237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182237=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0554
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Areas affected...north-central Kansas into south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182237Z - 190200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may develop through the evening, with a risk
of large hail and locally strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows attempts at storms increasing
over western into north-central KS, within the deeply mixed/hot air
and near the diffuse warm front near the NE border. Mean
boundary-layer dewpoints are only in the 40s F at this time, but
positive theta-e advection is forecast this evening as the low-level
jet increases to over 50 kt. While capping will remain a concern, a
conditional risk of severe hail exists given steep lapse rates aloft
and 40+ kt effective shear. Localized wind damage could occur as
well, as evaporative cooling could be substantial with the
downdrafts. A watch is not currently expected given anticipated
sparse storm coverage.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 04/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4gJgzaCzn2um1NyI4YJRCOuM8Plcca9Gh8DfXC3m5mqp9GqOhF9YWDHymtU84zvCLbeTsDGIE=
sPrD1R00kVOM6vB8qA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39399844 39309990 39930039 40670016 41069949 41159849
            41009779 40569741 40259727 39869727 39599767 39399844=20


=3D =3D =3D
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