Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 18 2023 20:03:05

FOUS30 KWBC 182003
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Apr 18 2023 - 12Z Wed Apr 19 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Jackson


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 19 2023 - 12Z Thu Apr 20 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold
front over eastern portions of the Central Plains early Wednesday
evening before expanding southwest to northeast through the night
from eastern Kansas through Wisconsin. Higher QPF is forecast to
setup over eastern Kansas through southern Iowa where there is
better alignment of deep layer flow with the slow moving cold
front with instability (CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg). There is a
risk for rainfall rates over 1"/hr per the 12Z HREF. While KS will
have the most instability, antecedent conditions are most
favorable for flash flooding in Wisconsin due to added snowmelt
from the recent winter storm over the western half of the state.
Furthermore, some rainfall is expected tonight over southeast Neb
and IA which could aid preconditioning. The Marginal Risk was
refined just a bit from eastern Kansas through Wisconsin based on
the 12Z model consensus.


Jackson

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6CvHu7vPvzMfa4lPBTtk2yfEjySIVCv_bqQsI1iw9fYf=
X9xwiXQPzgeXRfUCPgbQ5eXag-eyVBynPBMyC3OavkegkH0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6CvHu7vPvzMfa4lPBTtk2yfEjySIVCv_bqQsI1iw9fYf=
X9xwiXQPzgeXRfUCPgbQ5eXag-eyVBynPBMyC3OadnE_At4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6CvHu7vPvzMfa4lPBTtk2yfEjySIVCv_bqQsI1iw9fYf=
X9xwiXQPzgeXRfUCPgbQ5eXag-eyVBynPBMyC3OagK03dAI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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