Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 18 2023 06:03:54

ACUS02 KWNS 180603
SWODY2
SPC AC 180602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential for large hail and wind damage
will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of the
central Plains, mid Missouri Valley, into parts of the southern
Plains.

....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level low will move northward into Saskatchewan on
Wednesday, as an upper-level trough moves into the central High
Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in southwest Kansas as a
cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the lower 60s F
along a relatively narrow tongue of low-level moisture. Surface
heating will result in moderate destabilization across much of the
moist sector by midday. Convective initiation is expected during the
mid to late afternoon near the front as temperatures peak and
low-level convergence becomes maximized. Thunderstorms will develop
and move northeastward along and near the instability axis during
the late afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings around 00Z from Omaha southwestward to Salina
have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 40 to 50 kt of 0-6
km shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This environment
will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than
2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that have
intense updrafts. A wind-damage threat is also expected to develop
as cells increase in coverage during the early to mid evening. Wind
damage will be possible with supercells and short multicell line
segments. The threat is expected to eventually affect parts of
eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri and central to eastern Iowa by
late evening into the early overnight.

....Southern Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern Plains
on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough moves across the southern and
central Rockies. At the surface, a dryline will become sharply
defined during the day. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F
will contribute to moderate instability to the east of the dryline
across parts of the southern Plains. A stout cap will be in place
during much of the day. As the cap weakens during the late
afternoon, isolated convective initiation is expected to the east of
the dryline.

NAM forecast soundings at 00Z along the instability axis have MLCAPE
of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear from 40 to 50 knots, and 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells
and isolated large hail with cells that can initiate. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger
updrafts. Wind damage may also occur with supercells. Although the
severe threat will be conditional, the environment will be very
favorable for severe storm development. A 15 percent contour has
been added for this conditional severe threat.

...Broyles.. 04/18/2023

$$

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