Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0553
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 17 2023 19:12:16

ACUS11 KWNS 171912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171911=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171911Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally gusty winds and hail possible through the
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue
through the afternoon across portions of southeastern New Mexico and
western Texas. Surface observations and RAP sounding profiles
indicate very dry near surface conditions, with dew points in the
mid 30s to 40s and inverted V profiles, which will keep storms high
based and support risk of gusty outflow winds. Steep lapse rates
around 7-8 C/km and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support
some risk for instances of severe hail, mainly across Big Bend and
far southwest Texas where moisture return is more sufficient for
more maturing updrafts (given forecast MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg).
Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions suggest updrafts may struggle
with initiation and maintenance, given entrainment of dry air. Given
weak moisture profiles and limited threat area, a watch is unlikely
to be needed.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_4_JZGkLPhloioNxOpeOgKn2hb13JjI3Cyrq1pFM_YRaCRGW9VlEZekWsGr1GRqkvi5DcOeCT=
_Tm14OnEJ6Tz2ZCmDk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   30320413 31260429 32510451 33190460 33800425 34020396
            34110328 34170273 34120215 33990179 33810161 33580178
            32920223 32730227 31810226 31070201 30470180 29980169
            29800171 29760213 29760266 29500285 29250291 29030314
            28980328 29070344 29180368 29260390 29310396 30320413=20


=3D =3D =3D
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