Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 17 2023 16:24:47

ACUS01 KWNS 171624
SWODY1
SPC AC 171623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST
TX/SOUTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST FL...

....SUMMARY...
A marginally severe storm or two will remain possible through about
mid-afternoon over southeast Florida. Isolated severe wind gusts and
small to marginally severe hail will be possible between 4 to 9 PM
CDT across parts of west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

....Southeast FL...
A near-term threat for a severe storm or two should persist for a
couple more hours attendant to a minor southern-stream mid-level
trough passing across the southern peninsula. Within a lingering
combination of moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, weak
supercells will remain capable of producing small to marginally
severe hail and locally strong gusts. Low-level winds appear to be
in the process of weakening and becoming more veered, which will
result in a decreasing threat later this afternoon.

....West TX and southeast NM...
Northwest of the more substantial moisture return, deep
boundary-layer mixing will support at least isolated high-based
thunderstorms along a lee trough during the late afternoon and early
evening. Inverted-v thermodynamic profiles with DCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg will favor strong to locally severe outflow gusts with
semi-organized cells, based on the steep lapse rates and moderately
elongated, straight hodographs. An LP-supercell with a marginal hail
threat is plausible towards the Big Bend/Lower Pecos Valley owing to
greater elongation of the hodograph and MLCAPE near 500 J/kg.

...Grams/Thornton.. 04/17/2023

$$

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