Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0551
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 17 2023 15:10:18

ACUS11 KWNS 171510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171509=20
FLZ000-171645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Areas affected...south Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171509Z - 171645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may briefly become severe across the
southern Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. Strong
thunderstorm gusts or a brief tornado are possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing late this morning both along the
southwest FL coast and near the southeast coast. An isolated
supercell west of FLL is likely occurring near an outflow boundary
and low-level confluence zone. Though both areas of convection are
being supported by modest large-scale ascent due to a passing weak
shortwave impulse in southwesterly deep-layer flow. The 12z RAOB
from MFL indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally
moist boundary-layer. This is contributing to moderate instability
across the region. Latest VWP data suggests vertical shear has
decreased from the time of the morning RAOB, but is likely still
sufficient for at least transient organized convection, especially
near the outflow boundary where backed low-level winds will result
in enhancement of shear. Overall peak in limited severe potential is
expected over the next couple of hours before the threat diminishes
through the afternoon. A couple of strong thunderstorm gusts, small
hail or a brief tornado may accompany this activity in the near
term. Given the limited potential and short-duration of the threat,
a watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Grams.. 04/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_BlgK7SraGAS8M6J2itZhIdQstSRZoZ-xTvGcLNkNnYnQ7hChDk_BKAguOTL3vPRT25BXT7aY=
xfNFHf7X-uHVizlfr4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   26158190 26648129 26698006 26557979 25707984 25288004
            25108044 25198080 25398133 25558169 26158190=20


=3D =3D =3D
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