Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 17 2023 12:37:46

ACUS01 KWNS 171237
SWODY1
SPC AC 171236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible later this
afternoon/evening across the southern High Plains.

....Synopsis...
A deep midlevel trough will continue to progress inland over the
Pacific Northwest, with cold midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates
resulting in sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms along
the coast and farther inland through this evening.  Downstream from
this midlevel trough, lee cyclogenesis is expected across the
central High Plains.  In response, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air
mass will begin to spread northwestward along the lower Rio Grande
Valley.  Northwest of the more substantial moisture return, surface
heating and deep mixing will support the potential for a few
high-based thunderstorms along a lee trough across the southern High
Plains this afternoon/evening.  Inverted-v profiles will favor
strong outflow gusts with semi-organized cells/small clusters, based
on the steep lapse rate profiles and modest deep-layer vertical
shear/straight hodographs.

Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will remain possible today across
central/south FL in association with lingering low-level moisture
and a weak southern stream shortwave trough.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 04/17/2023

$$

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