Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 17 2023 05:34:44

ACUS01 KWNS 170534
SWODY1
SPC AC 170532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the continental United States
Monday.

....Discussion...

Deep cyclone over the Great Lakes region will be responsible for
offshore flow along the middle Atlantic and Gulf Coasts Monday. This
will limit return flow to a narrow corridor across far west TX into
the southern High Plains, along the back side of a surface
anticyclone that settles into central TX. Otherwise, frontal
penetration over south FL should force deep convection offshore
early in the period.

Early this morning, considerable amount of convection persists
across the southern half of the FL Peninsula in response to a
short-wave trough. This low-latitude feature will cross the southern
peninsula by 18z and thunderstorm potential will decrease markedly
in its wake.

Another weak short-wave trough is forecast to progress along the
International border into far west TX during the late afternoon.
Latest guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will result
in very steep lapse rates, but low-level moisture should remain
meager. Even so, isolated high-based convection is expected to
develop by late afternoon. PW values will likely be too low to
warrant any meaningful threat for severe downbursts.

Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread inland just north of a
pronounced 500mb jet across the Pacific Northwest later today.
Onshore flow should provide enough moisture for at least low-topped
convection along the coast. A few flashes of lightning can not be
ruled out with this activity. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may
develop inland across the northern Rockies ahead of this upper
trough.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/17/2023

$$

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