Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 19:45:09 ACUS01 KWNS 161945 SWODY1 SPC AC 161943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST... ....SUMMARY... A couple of instances of strong winds and marginal hail remain possible across central and south Florida. A strong gust or two may also occur into this evening from eastern Upper Great Lakes and Lower Great Lakes, into the Southeast. ....Discussion... Prior reasoning, and outlook areas, continue to reflect current expectations. As such, aside from minor line adjustments, no changes appear necessary for this outlook issuance. ...Goss.. 04/16/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023/ ....Central/south FL... Greater than weak buoyancy in the CONUS today will be confined to the peninsula south of a remnant outflow boundary in north-central FL, with the largest values of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across south FL. The larger CAPE regime should remain coincident with weaker deep-layer shear, as moderate mid-level westerlies across central FL lie within the buoyancy gradient. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is likely later this afternoon from the interior peninsula to the Atlantic coast sea breeze. The strongest storms will offer primary threats of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. There is low confidence regarding the evolution of a large MCS over the central Gulf. But there is potential for a remnant MCV to approach the Gulf coast of central/south FL tonight, with a lingering threat for isolated wind damage and perhaps marginal hail. ....Lower Great Lakes to the Southeast... A rather large area of lower-end damaging wind potential from strong to locally severe gusts remains evident this afternoon and evening. The relatively most favorable corridor for this to occur appears to be over the Upper OH Valley where cloud breaks were most pronounced this morning ahead of the progressive cold front. Within the warm sector ahead of the front, mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and buoyancy meager (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) with modest effective bulk shear as stronger deep-layer winds remain confined along/to the cool side of the front. Still, a broken band of lower-topped convection should develop within an arc along the front from Lower MI to the central Appalachians this afternoon and spread northeast across the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic States into this evening. Sporadic damaging winds should be expected from occasional strong gusts. Farther south in the Southeast, a remnant MCV along the AL/FL border should help focus isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the trailing cold front pushing east. Some attempt at boundary-layer moisture recovery ahead of it, in the wake of yesterday's MCS that tracked across the central Gulf coast to the FL/GA border area, should support a threat for isolated strong gusts and localized damaging winds to the GA/SC coast through this evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .