Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0545
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 18:41:11

ACUS11 KWNS 161841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161840 COR
FLZ000-162000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Areas affected...Central and southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161840Z - 162000Z

CORRECTED FOR LOCATION AND GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for scattered damaging
wind and hail expected to continue to develop. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Remnant outflow from the Gulf of Mexico is moving
slowly southward across the Florida Peninsula. Deepening cumulus and
a few developing cells have been observed in the last hour.
Temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 80s with MLCAPE around
1000-2500 J/kg across the Florida Peninsula. Overall, shear profiles
are marginal with deep layer shear around 20-30 kts largely confined
to the immediate eastern Atlantic coast. Given the thermal profiles
with large CAPE throughout the profile, potential for damaging winds
and locally large hail will be possible. Interaction of storms with
the Atlantic coast sea breeze front this afternoon could produce
enough surface vorticity locally to produce a brief tornado. Given
the marginal threat, a watch is unlikely.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5epBGOjOL8PML4lSsuAvn-JtAMsD_r08w05ROL4aMuWoLYBR89RVOamiGCIzKkhVNMklLJCJh=
YKFZme_f_t-cUh_TLY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   24958037 25598106 26578177 27348234 27738220 28088195
            28348170 28658149 28828121 29018082 29008063 28468032
            27868004 26977971 26287967 25777972 25117998 24958037=20


=3D =3D =3D
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