Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0545
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 18:07:40

ACUS11 KWNS 161807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161806=20
FLZ000-162000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Areas affected...Central and southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161806Z - 162000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for scattered damaging
wind and hail expected to continue to develop. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Remnant outflow from the Gulf of Mexico is moving
slowly southward across the Florida Peninsula. Deepening cumulus and
a few developing cells have been observed in the last hour.
Temperatures have risen into the mid to upper 80s with MLCAPE around
1000-2500 J/kg across the Florida Peninsula. Overall, shear profiles
are marginal with deep layer shear around 20-30 kts largely confined
to the immediate coast. Given the thermal profiles with large CAPE
throughout the profile, potential for damaging winds and locally
large hail will be possible. Interaction of storms with the Atlantic
coast sea breeze front this afternoon could produce enough surface
vorticity locally to produce a brief tornado. Given the marginal
threat, a watch is unlikely.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6we5ucMg2Tj2RF0U_HOP4qPLNnlQji6yV0tXZtN9w6rAGxvpBkzBQ3CAtUO_-qWhb81e_cE4u=
GhTMj63oFGtbjxCWvc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   24958037 25598106 26578177 27368231 27828265 28168254
            28398223 28688181 28988151 29238122 29138089 29118084
            29008063 28468032 27868004 26977971 26287967 25777972
            25117998 24958037=20


=3D =3D =3D
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