Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0544
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 17:24:08

ACUS11 KWNS 161724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161723=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-161930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Areas affected...eastern Lower Michigan...central/eastern Ohio and
portions of western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161723Z - 161930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong thunderstorm gusts are possible through
the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A band of convection is expected to increase in
coverage, arcing from northern/eastern Lower Michigan into central
Ohio and western West Virginia over the next 1-2 hours. This
activity will develop within a modest boundary-layer moisture and
weak midlevel lapse rate environment ahead of an
eastward-progressing cold front. MLCAPE is expected to remain
near/below 500 J/kg through the afternoon as the band lifts
east/northeast across the MCD area. Deep-layer flow also will remain
modest, with effective shear magnitudes generally around 30 kt.
While the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment will remain
marginal for organized severe convection, steep low-level lapse
rates with rather deep boundary-layer mixing could support localized
strong gust potential. At this time the overall threat is expected
to remain limited and a watch is not currently anticipated.

...Leitman/Grams.. 04/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5xu-HhO7tW1k08yaXXNGIoek98z2iXP-zyPNFQOUfGhbmQQzDgtm6aED4kFgPwaVRAdrBPBfi=
Tv6anc6nhvaYdTB9Oc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41788372 43498456 44268488 44638451 44598365 44168268
            43288177 42078116 40478066 39258059 38628094 38378120
            38348186 38578248 39398286 41278354 41788372=20


=3D =3D =3D
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