Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 12:37:37 ACUS01 KWNS 161237 SWODY1 SPC AC 161236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...AND FROM LOWER MI TO THE CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible in parts of Florida, and isolated damaging winds will be possible from Lower Michigan to the Carolinas. ....Lower MI to the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel low over IA will move toward Lake MI, as the larger-scale midlevel trough progresses eastward from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley/Appalachians by early Monday. An associated surface cyclone will occlude across northeast WI and adjacent Lake MI, as a cold front surges eastward today across Lower MI, the OH Valley and the Appalachians. Within the warm sector, midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, though weak buoyancy is expected ahead of the cold front as a result of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks. Steepening low-level lapse rates, the weak buoyancy and some increase in midlevel flow (though largely parallel to the front) will support gusty outflow winds with bands of shallow convection this afternoon/evening from Lower MI to the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Forcing for ascent will be weaker/shallower along the cold front farther south into the Carolinas, where a few storms will be possible along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE near 500 J/kg) and effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt will support a low-end threat for wind damage. ....Central/south FL this afternoon through tonight... The richer low-level moisture and warmer afternoon temperatures are expected across central/south FL. A modest increase in west-southwesterly flow aloft is expected later this afternoon into tonight over FL, in advance of a convectively-enhanced shortwave trough (associated with the large convective cluster over the northern Gulf of Mexico). A few strong, multicell storms will be possible this afternoon from the interior peninsula to the Atlantic coast sea breeze, where isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is uncertainty regarding the evolution of the ongoing Gulf of Mexico storm cluster, though remnants of these storms could cross central/south FL tonight, with a continued threat for isolated wind damage or hail. ...Thompson/Gleason.. 04/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .