Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 09:02:37 ACUS48 KWNS 160902 SWOD48 SPC AC 160900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level trough will move through the Intermountain West on Wednesday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across much of the Great Plains. A moist but capped airmass will be in place from the eastern half of Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and the Ozarks. Although moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of the moist sector by afternoon, the cap will likely keep thunderstorm development isolated. If a few storms can initiate in spite of the cap, then a severe threat will be possible. Due to the conditionally of the threat, will not introduce a Day 4 area. ....Thursday/Day 5... On Thursday, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move quickly eastward from the Four Corners region into the southern and central Plains. In response, a well-developed dryline is expected to accelerate eastward across eastern parts of the southern Plains. Ahead of the dryline, moderate instability is forecast by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northward across much of Arkansas. Thunderstorm development will be most likely near the moisture and instability axis from late afternoon to mid evening. At that time, model forecasts suggest that the nose of a mid-level jet will move into the region from the west. Large-scale ascent and increasing deep-layer shear, associated with the jet, will make organized severe thunderstorms possible. Large hail and wind damage are forecast to be the primary threats with supercells and intense short line segments. ....Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex eastward to the eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Friday to the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Although an isolated severe threat could develop near or after peak heating each day, convective coverage is expected to remain relatively isolated in most areas. The convective potential may decrease on Sunday, as an area of high pressure settles in over much of the continental United States. ...Broyles.. 04/16/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .