Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 07:32:09

ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail, and perhaps a few strong wind
gusts will be possible in parts of the Great Plains Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

....Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge in the Great Plains will move eastward into the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as southwest mid-level
flow becomes established across the central and northern Rockies. At
the surface, a lee trough will develop in the High Plains on Tuesday
as low-level moisture returns northward across the Great Plains. A
capping inversion will likely prohibit convective development during
the day, with an elevated mixed layer gradually advecting eastward
across the central Plains. After dark, the low-level jet will
strengthen from Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible near the nose of the
low-level jet beginning around midnight and persisting through much
of the overnight period. NAM forecast soundings at 06Z from Omaha to
Sioux Falls have MUCAPE generally in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range
with effective shear between 40 and 50 knots. This, along with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km may be favorable for elevated
rotating storms with isolated severe hail. Strong winds will also be
possible.

....Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will move from the southern Plains into the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as southwest mid-level
flow becomes established in the southern and central Plains. At the
surface, a dryline will develop in the southern High Plains, with
dewpoints gradually increasing into the lower to mid 60s F. Although
NAM forecast soundings have moderate instability over much of the
moist sector by afternoon, an elevated mixed layer will be in place
keeping the airmass capped. MLCIN is generally forecast to be
between -100 and -200 J/kg across much of west-central Texas into
western Oklahoma. The cap may weaken some during the late afternoon
and early evening, with isolated convection possible in a few areas
of the southern Plains. Because of the elevated mixed layer and
decoupling of the low-level winds, the cap should strengthen from
the evening into the overnight. Due to the conditional potential for
isolated convective initiation, a marginal risk has been added to
parts of the southern Plains.

...Broyles.. 04/16/2023

$$

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