Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 07:08:11

AWUS01 KWNH 160708
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-161300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Areas affected...northern Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, and
portions of the upper peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160707Z - 161300Z

Summary...Areas of light to moderate rainfall will overspread
sensitive ground conditions from widespread snowmelt, resulting in
excessive runoff.

Discussion...A broad area of light to moderate rainfall was
spreading northward on the eastern fringe of a mid-level trough
axis located over western Iowa.  Precipitation rates of 0.2
inch/hr were located within this band of rain, which extended
along an axis from near St. Cloud, MN (STC) east-southeastward
toward Oshkosh, WI (OSH).  The band was moving northward at around
30 knots toward portions of the discussion area that were
experiencing impacts from rapid snowmelt and swollen watersheds
based on local storm reports. FFG thresholds across the region
were as low as 0.25 inch/hr in spots, indicative of the sensitive
nature of ground conditions and potential for excessive runoff
impacts even with modest rain rates moving into the region from
the south.

Models/observations suggest that this initial band of
precipitation will be the onset of what could be at least a couple
rounds of light to moderate precip to affect the region through
13Z.  Slightly heavier rain rates (and 0.5-0.75 inch totals) are
expected from northeastern Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan as
point forecast soundings indicate the presence of mid-level
instability to support deeper convection.  Ongoing flooding
impacts could worsen with the incoming rainfall through 13Z today.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9ryh5F7I6S7wcra3s3-cozleGa9HjPrDrOdh3X0emwwnuk5BE2uDrw3RKlF6l2NFyvDE=
_eKI1nFmxysTQoOg_HXDpnA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DLH...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47549197 47529110 47149022 47078910 47038797=20
            46898749 46918618 46748487 46368425 45938437=20
            45778547 45638689 45008823 44908956 44989116=20
            45169254 45659331 46099369 46629344 47079291=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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