Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 00:52:05

ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe risk continues tonight, especially across the mid Mississippi
and lower Mississippi Valley region. Large hail and damaging winds
are the primary risk, though a tornado or two remains possible.

....01z Update...

Mid-level speed max is forecast to strengthen as it rounds the base
of the short wave over the central/southern Plains tonight. Latest
guidance suggests 500mb speeds will increase to near 90kt over AR by
16/12z. This will encourage the short wave to become negatively
tilted as it ejects into the Midwest tonight. Resultant 12hr height
falls should aid ongoing convection as it propagates downstream.

Early this evening, an elongated corridor of convection arcs from
northwest IL-southeast MO-eastern AR. Convection becomes more
scattered along the trailing cold front across LA into the TX
Coastal Plain. Steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy extend ahead of
this activity from IL into the lower MS Valley. Ongoing QLCS is
surging east-northeast across southern IL and this activity should
advance toward the IN border later this evening. Have adjusted
severe probabilities immediately downstream to account for this
organized line likely advancing a bit farther east than earlier
anticipated.

Otherwise, trailing convection across LA/TX is producing mostly
hail. Steep lapse rates should continue to support hail production
with the strongest storms. Strong/severe thunderstorm threat will
continue along the cold front as it progresses toward the central
Gulf Coast by early Monday.

Long-lived MCS that developed in response to a southern-stream short
wave has advanced into the eastern FL Panhandle. Well-defined MCV is
currently located over southeast AL. Primary threat with this MCS
should be gusty winds as it spreads toward the northern Peninsula
this evening.

...Darrow.. 04/16/2023

$$

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