Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0537
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 16 2023 00:45:04

ACUS11 KWNS 160044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160044=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Arkansas into western
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142...

Valid 160044Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 142
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain a concern with an embedded bow-echo
moving across northeast AR into western TN. A 65+ kt gust cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A bow echo embedded within a larger-scale MCS continues
to progress eastward across far northeast AR with a history of wind
damage. In the immediate area of the bow echo, ambient vertical
shear vectors (albeit around 30 kts or so) are oriented roughly
orthogonal to the bow. Given ample buoyancy, the orthogonal shear
vector orientation, and the existence of a possible shallow
rear-inflow jet evident via KNQA velocity data, severe gusts will
remain likely over the next few hours. A 65+ kt gust is possible at
the apex of the bow.

...Squitieri.. 04/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-OQl5xU5Pn_SoeswnsiXGTQKm0Hb5MSChtrrD45BBCrOs2jKdst3rmQxC9p5Fdcr9ZZb1NPKn=
AySsw3pDBDdtFC8DHc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...

LAT...LON   35498825 35338854 35238927 35228976 35209030 35389066
            35589071 35869061 36039048 36229010 36228934 36198870
            36108847 35908822 35498825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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