Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0534
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 23:28:33

ACUS11 KWNS 152328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152328=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of far east Arkansas into western
Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 152328Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be increasing east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0180 and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed. Large hail and damaging gusts will the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Line segments with embedded supercells continue to
track east-northeastward toward the eastern fringes of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0140, where 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear reside. Since these storms should make it east
of the watch well before sunset and associated nocturnal cooling, at
least scattered damaging gusts or instances of large hail are
possible into the evening hours, necessitating the need of a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!89MB-3jTqISk9EWMel4fi75ikGnTONon7gTJv_5Ihu8leq-osD8GO5fVvN5vf9x9wFLGTDZSv=
9cEqIxAh3Oty3A8OqY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33409110 34299094 35409093 36119074 36419030 36548953
            36478884 36298832 35928810 35238812 34478826 33878867
            33568945 33449014 33409110=20


=3D =3D =3D
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