Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0532
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 22:11:30

ACUS11 KWNS 152211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152211=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula into far
southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152211Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible
over the next few hours. The overall severe threat appears to be
isolated and a WW issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized MCS persists across the Gulf Coast and
is currently traversing the FL Panhandle. KEVX radar has shown 50+
kts of inbound velocities above 2000 ft, and occasional transient
low-level circulations along the MCS leading line. While upper 70s
to near 80 F surface temperatures extend well inland, more favorable
low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to
1500 J/kg MLCAPE) are located only a few dozen miles inland,
suggesting that any severe threat that materializes should be
confined to the immediate Gulf Coast. Regional VADs show elongated
hodographs, suggesting modest vertical speed shear is contributing
to continued organization (since the shear vectors are roughly
perpendicular to the line). As such, the available buoyancy and
shear will continue to support an isolated damaging gust threat over
the next few hours, and a leading-line embedded tornado cannot be
completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to
be isolated at best and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_x2Oaq8Q2XHwLu7b4vi33ACWmC5K0HkaRR6YkjOm2in46bfWl23mehII95u469sE9rtdXhYM0=
2HVaAju1jlUswmMi80$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31128636 31378538 31268464 30978393 30568374 30188396
            29918459 29748512 29838558 30128599 30468630 31128636=20


=3D =3D =3D
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