Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0531
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 22:08:03

ACUS11 KWNS 152207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152207=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...East-central MO into west-central IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 139...

Valid 152207Z - 152330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 139 continues.

SUMMARY...A significant wind threat will spread toward the
Mississippi River over the next 1-2 hours, in addition to a
continued risk of very large hail and a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Multiple cell mergers have resulted in the development
of a large and intense HP supercell structure that recently moved
out of Maries County, MO. Strong midlevel rotation has been noted
with this cell on radar, and a 97 mph measured gust was reported at
2141 UTC near Vichy, MO. Additional upscale growth appears likely,
with additional cell development noted both north and south along
the larger-scale outflow, and also ahead of the ongoing convection
across Franklin County, MO. This may result in the development of a
bowing segment that will approach the MS River with a continued
significant-wind threat.=20

In addition to the wind risk, moderate buoyancy, steep midlevel
lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to
support a very large hail threat (including a risk of wind-driven
hail) with any discrete cells, and also stronger updrafts within the
developing QLCS. Also, while low-level flow is not overly strong,
backed surface winds are resulting in sufficient low-level shear/SRH
for a tornado or two, either with any stronger discrete supercell,
or with line-embedded circulations within a developing QLCS.

...Dean.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9WdP6vCocWUB-w5hSsXopeRJXmE59WU5xTlYQhx8hQvxAJ6IvfgAijLgu5baXboMQkp_qaw7F=
9czkdno2uPI5IlQCuQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38519170 39159138 39299017 39088975 38658964 38158980
            37889008 37859076 37859151 38159163 38519170=20


=3D =3D =3D
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