Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0529
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 20:38:59

ACUS11 KWNS 152038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152038=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...central/southern Missouri into parts of
northern/west-central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

Valid 152038Z - 152245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue across WW 138.
An increasing risk for swaths of damaging gusts is expected in the
next couple of hours as storms develop into a line as they spread
east late this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells/clusters are ongoing from
central MO into northwest AR this afternoon. These storms have a
history of producing mainly 1-2 inch hail, but some as large as 4
inches in diameter have been observed. Moderate instability/steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs will continue to
support storms capable of severe hail for the next few hours. As
convection continues shift eastward, storms are expected to congeal
and develop upscale into a bow/QLCS. As this occurs, the risk for
damaging gusts will increase across eastern portions of the watch
area. See MCD 528 for downstream watch potential.

...Leitman.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_6_DwVM7RRn8lON5YiSioK-cyHRdZLUUcM4tvUEYjD0FeoHLS8-7YPe38PCpS4msXTG6H2yAH=
2oJ2pVzVk9M2q0SbJA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   38529256 38809206 38739101 38369089 37269111 35519239
            35019310 34739397 34729456 35339449 36929404 37709344
            38529256=20


=3D =3D =3D
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