Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0526
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 19:13:00

ACUS11 KWNS 151912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151912=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Middle/Upper Texas Coastal Plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151912Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in
the next couple of hours across portions of the Middle and Upper TX
Coast vicinity. Large hail and locally strong gusts may accompany
this activity. The area is being monitored for possible severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the TX coastal plain
vicinity this afternoon. Strong heating amid low 70s F dewpoints and
steep midlevel lapse rates is contributing to MLCAPE around
2000-4000 J/kg. A southeastward-advancing cold front remains well
northwest of the region, and is not expected to move into the area
until later this evening, resulting in only weak confluence
associated with residual outflow from overnight/morning convection
and sea breeze interactions. In addition to weak forcing mechanisms,
vertical shear will remain modest, with effective shear values
generally less than 30 kt. Nevertheless, strong instability and
steep lapse rates should support at least brief vigorous organized
updrafts. Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible with the most intense cells. Longevity of stronger/better
organized cells in uncertain, but trends will continue to be
monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this
afternoon.

...Leitman/Grams.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4QB6lHDZ3IibMJkxPjIvndP5ra81_Yj4dRgRbw2OvqHSXAMFel2zXHC3sdNdlrOWHCzEU0gkU=
pPXL_mlhgagtD7I7fg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   30039595 30449511 31109396 31049362 30679348 30149360
            29719379 29539408 29039492 28509596 28569639 28859667
            29379671 29749643 30039595=20


=3D =3D =3D
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