Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0525
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 18:46:01

ACUS11 KWNS 151845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151845=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...far eastern Texas...southern
Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 151845Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely by 20-22z. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch south of WW138 will be needed within the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is expected across portions of
western Arkansas into far eastern Texas along and ahead of an
eastward progressing cold front this afternoon. Initially,
semi-discrete and clustered supercells will be possible within the
open warm sector across southern and central Arkansas. Profiles from
SRX and LIT indicate modest low level shear (0-1 km SRH around
100-150 m2/s2) with largely linear hodographs. Tendency would be for
cells to produce large hail and damaging wind, locally 2+ inches.
Tornado risk will initially remain low. Further west across eastern
Texas and northwestern Louisiana, subsidence behind a morning MCS is
notable on visible satellite with a lack of cumulus development. Dew
points in this region have mixed into the upper 50s. This will
likely delay development with southward extend into the evening as
the cold front approaches. As the cold front approaches from the
west, additional development is expected with storm mode becoming
more linear as forcing for ascent increases. The main threat will
transition to damaging wind through the afternoon and into the
evening as storms begin to grow upscale, though given effective
shear profiles embedded brief tornado potential will be possible. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the next couple of
hours.

...Thornton/Grams.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6XxhgP4nXYLqg3emloV1qUrk_-TCHnGooH2nXyBvl4parBPolg4h8re2O-ZlE8Vm4XiKsVTPE=
tnGxNhA_dUi49xMf2M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   31449357 32459434 33389487 34479473 34599440 34679392
            34759372 34819335 34829308 34849273 34919212 34599144
            33189183 32569206 32169229 31929247 31699262 31429299
            31419321 31449357=20


=3D =3D =3D
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