Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 05:03:48

AWUS01 KWNH 150503
FFGMPD
KSZ000-150802-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Areas affected...central Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150502Z - 150802Z

Summary...Localized training of convection across central Kansas
could result in a few areas of excessive runoff despite dry
antecedent conditions.

Discussion...Renewed convective development is occurring in the
wake of an earlier MCS across central Kansas.  The storms are
responding to a dramatic increase in low-level/850mb flow across
northwestern Oklahoma, with strong convergence noted across the
area.  Additionally, storms are in a favorable thermodynamic
environment, with 7.5-9C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting 2000
J/kg MUCAPE despite updrafts likely being elevated above a
stabilizing boundary layer.

The concern with ongoing convection is that its orientation
(favorable for training along an axis from McPherson to Hutchinson
to Pratt) is enhancing hourly rain rates into the 1-2.5 inch/hr
range.  These rates are below the 3 inch/hr FFG thresholds in the
area that are in place due to very dry antecedent conditions
across the region, suggesting that any flash flood threat could be
isolated and limited to low-lying and/or sensitive areas.=20

East of I-135, FFGs lower into the 1.5 inch/hr range, which could
result in a somewhat higher flash flood risk as long as training
convection continues.  The tendency over time, however, will be
for storms to pick up eastward forward speed as a cold front
continues to surge southeastward and 850mb flow gradually veers
across the region.=20

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4YgIL65wND7U_VTgf8jGT-PMa2acY-zbOBoaLvCTK6xb0UG1hibk6Sv1leQW58w9CU7v=
78T1DiLUTspurpczzAyJ98s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39069690 38789602 38039589 37609643 37239848=20
            37359953 37809972 38509949 38839854=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.