Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0520
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 04:53:53

ACUS11 KWNS 150453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150453=20
TXZ000-150700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Areas affected...TX Hill Country and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 150453Z - 150700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and/or strong gusts may
develop overnight. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An elevated storm cluster is moving across southern
portions of the TX Hill Country late this evening, in association
with an apparent low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough. The
evolution of this cluster remains uncertain during the overnight
hours, with steep lapse rates supporting maintenance of elevated
convection, but CINH likely to remain prohibitive for storms rooted
closer to the surface. Moderate to locally strong MUCAPE and
modestly favorable effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) will support
some hail threat if storm intensity ticks upward, and strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out if a more organized forward-propagating
cluster develops.=20

At this time, the severe threat is expected to remain isolated,
rendering watch issuance unlikely. However, trends will continue to
be monitored for an uptick in storm coverage and intensity as
convection spreads east-northeastward overnight.

...Dean/Bunting.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-TGGf4OsftUWOQ3CAZ99Sofd4mh3EC8JZHc5dWfaEM9DyGuDbRliiEsZ2mQbuPcIUavscleq8=
Qu0zqLt-XXG87VgEAc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30199998 30609867 30619752 30129710 29769736 29589785
            29209885 29259974 29490007 30199998=20


=3D =3D =3D
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