Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0519
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 04:34:22

ACUS11 KWNS 150434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150433=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Areas affected...South-central into northeast KS...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...

Valid 150433Z - 150630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually diminish with time, but
isolated hail and/or strong gusts will remain possible into the
overnight hours. New watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has evolved across
east-central into northeast KS late this evening. Recent radar
imagery suggests that outflow is tending to outpace the leading
convection, and this trend is likely to continue as the QLCS moves
into an environment with weaker buoyancy and stronger MLCINH. While
the severe threat should gradually diminish with time, isolated hail
or strong wind gusts will remain possible overnight, especially
where stronger convection ahead of the line can merge into the
advancing QLCS.=20

Farther southwest, a few stronger cells have developed in the wake
of earlier convection across south-central KS, where the primary
cold front is impinging on the western edge of deeper low-level
moisture. While this convection is likely to remain somewhat
elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate MUCAPE could
support isolated hail with the stronger storms overnight, as this
renewed convection eventually advances eastward in conjunction with
the cold front.=20

WW 136 is scheduled to expire at 05 UTC. While some localized severe
threat may persist into the overnight hours, the increasingly
isolated and marginal nature of the risk renders new watch issuance
unlikely at this time.

...Dean/Bunting.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4-_ixCx-w5PECzvrovgLsx3h4GVoReN_VH3uxXRCINxO_QivpGavJM6ZcwVszTCyE-suvgyiq=
tc77YLAMwCM6SFv7oM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37549938 38319829 38889729 40029593 40069529 39809465
            39439458 38909491 38229570 37779691 37259851 37219913
            37549938=20


=3D =3D =3D
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