Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0518
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 02:05:21

ACUS11 KWNS 150205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150204=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-150330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Areas affected...Central/northeast KS...Northwest OK...Southeast
NE...Southwest IA...Extreme northwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...

Valid 150204Z - 150330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for sporadic hail and severe gusts continues
this evening. A gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Storms from southwest IA into southeast NE and central
KS have largely consolidated into loosely organized lines/clusters
near the cold front this evening. This trend has resulted in an
increasing threat of locally severe/damaging gusts, as noted with a
67 mph gust at Offutt AFB, and other reports of damaging wind across
southeast NE. The primarily linear convective mode and increasing
low-level flow associated with a southerly low-level jet (as noted
in recent VWPs from ICT/TOP) will continue to support a threat of
sporadic severe gusts into late evening, in association with any
stronger clusters and/or bowing segments. Steep midlevel lapse rates
and moderate buoyancy (as noted in the 00Z TOP sounding) will also
continue to support isolated severe hail with the strongest
updrafts.=20

While the low-level jet will continue to strengthen with time,
increasing near-surface stability associated with nocturnal cooling
and an eventual decrease in buoyancy with northeastward extent
should result in a gradual weakening trend later tonight. Some
isolated severe threat may eventually spread east of WW 136, but
downstream watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

...Dean/Bunting.. 04/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!84KD6brHi6U-sKaUUCcb5iLLJGVYFrBdu9bNtIVWXlB975x5dmtmTfhOvkZCU9sv0PaQfYBv8=
EWt1brSDuGDYNsUhtQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36779930 38859824 40589642 41289634 41789560 41559500
            41049478 40219515 38969626 36839830 36679878 36779930=20


=3D =3D =3D
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