Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 15 2023 00:50:23

ACUS01 KWNS 150050
SWODY1
SPC AC 150048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds are most likely this evening from southeast Nebraska into
central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Additional isolated severe
thunderstorms remain possible across south-central Texas this
evening.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough
ejecting east across CO/NM with the leading edge of large-scale
forcing now spreading across the central High Plains. Isolated
strong/severe thunderstorms are noted immediately ahead of this
feature within the post-frontal upslope flow over southeast CO. This
activity should continue to spread east ahead of the short wave.

Of more significance, downstream, scattered convection continues to
expand in areal coverage along the cold font from southeast NE into
central KS. Pre-frontal dryline convection over southern
KS/northwestern OK may continue to grow upscale as the cold front
surges into the southwestern flank of this activity over the next
few hours. Many of these updrafts are generating hail and this
should be the primary concern, especially with supercells where hail
could locally approach 2 inches in the strongest cores.
Thunderstorms should propagate northeast along the frontal zone
aided by a strengthening LLJ later this evening across eastern KS.

Farther south, a low-latitude short-wave trough is progressing
across northeast Mexico toward deep south Texas. Majority of
lightning-producing convection is currently observed over the higher
terrain south of the Big Bend. 00z sounding from DRT exhibited very
steep lapse rates through 6km with seasonally strong wind profiles.
It's not entirely clear how convectively active south-central TX
will be ahead of this feature but some risk for isolated supercells
remains across this region which could generate hail/wind.

...Darrow.. 04/15/2023

$$

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