Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0516
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 23:32:23

ACUS11 KWNS 142332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142331=20
TXZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 142331Z - 150130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms may develop through the remainder of
the evening. Large hail appears to be the main threat with the
stronger storms, though a couple of severe gusts cannot be ruled
out. Trends in convective coverage and intensity are being monitored
for the need of a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts have percolated in intensity
across portions of southern Texas (especially in Frio County) in a
moderately unstable/sheared environment. Storms have yet to become
sustained across the area due to some residual capping and lack of
stronger deep-layer ascent. However, 23Z mesoanalysis depicts a
subtle mid-level impulse approaching southern Texas from the
Chihuahuan Desert, which may serve as the impetus for more robust
convective development over the next few hours. Low-level moisture
is increasing well into the 60s F, overspread by 8+ C/km 700-500 mb
lapse rates, is contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, that in
tandem with 40 kts of effective bulk shear, would support the
development of supercells. RAP forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs, with near-saturation noted just above the effective
inflow layer (i.e. above 700 mb), indicative of efficient hail
growth potential in any supercells that can materialize, and 2+ inch
diameter hail cannot be ruled out.

At the moment, overall convective coverage is uncertain. However,
any storms that manage to mature and become sustained should be
efficient severe hail producers, along with severe gusts. As such,
conditions will continue to be monitored for trends in increasing
storm coverage, intensity, and the subsequent need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8w2KsohDjfiT5Imf8iu_JXwRsAExAXG7hdbkguVssnrS4GHeObQI34WT1fAWfnZgfxxdKt4VM=
k9Y3-mt8QV8dY4lSZo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29120086 29679973 29859814 29709728 29309690 28729685
            28209722 27849788 27659858 27689921 27839998 29120086=20


=3D =3D =3D
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