Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0513
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 17:55:19

ACUS11 KWNS 141755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141754=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Areas affected...much of central and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141754Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop through mid to late afternoon, with occasionally
intensifying stronger cells posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind.  While a watch does not appear needed due to the
anticipated marginal nature of the severe weather risk, trends will
continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...The mid-level low and cold core likely will remain to
the west of the crest of the southern Appalachians while slowly
accelerating northeastward through late afternoon.  However, an axis
of colder temperatures aloft extends to the east of the low as far
as the North Carolina coastal plain, to the north of 40-50 kt 500 mb
jet propagating eastward across Alabama, Georgia, and South
Carolina.  Beneath this regime, boundary-layer destabilization is
becoming maximized across the North Carolina Piedmont into coastal
plain, based on latest objective analysis.  This is where a pocket
of higher moisture content and daytime heating appear to be
contributing to mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 1000-1500
J/kg.

In response to this destabilization, deepening convective
development is underway, with scattered thunderstorms already in the
process of initiating.  Mostly to the north of the stronger
mid-level flow, deep-layer shear may remain modest, but could
perhaps become sufficient to support at least short-lived, weak
mid-level updraft rotation in the stronger cells.  This may
occasionally become capable of producing marginally severe hail and
locally strong wind gusts as storms tend to propagate northeastward
through late afternoon.

...Kerr/Leitman.. 04/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lAFRdQGIxuDIYOPyfn9LwEQYwzv6S4hlykR_3MFKC2fV5kKNBcTLlxBQOmq4__nmJylbfSMU=
3H0muTcj3hKcTwZS1g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   36098064 35847849 35497733 34057803 34067914 34697999
            35548130 36098064=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.