Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 07:33:15

ACUS03 KWNS 140733
SWODY3
SPC AC 140732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with wind-damage and hail,
will be possible on Sunday in parts of the Southeast. Marginally
severe storms will be possible further north into parts of the Ohio
Valley and southern Great Lakes.

....Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley/Southern
Great Lakes...
An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F across much of Georgia and
South Carolina. Surface heating will likely contribute to a pocket
of moderate instability ahead of the front from central Georgia into
western South Carolina. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the
instability corridor during the afternoon, with a few clusters
moving eastward toward the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorm
development will have the benefit of divergent flow aloft, along
with a 30 to 40 knot low-level jet. NAM forecast soundings during
the afternoon from central Georgia into western South Carolina have
veered low-level winds, with steep low-lapse rates and 0-6 km shear
of 30 to 35 knots. This should be sufficient for isolated wind
damage with the faster-moving and more organized line segments. Hail
will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to be
concentrated during the mid to late afternoon, when low-level lapse
rates will likely be the steepest.

Further north, from parts of the southern Appalachians into the
southern Great Lakes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon. The most likely location for
convection will be along a warm front moving northeastward across
the region. Along and behind the warm front, model forecast show
weak instability along a narrow tongue of low-level moisture.
Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong near the moist
axis, the more limited instability should keep any severe threat
marginal. A few damaging wind gusts could occur with line segments
that have access to locally greater instability.

...Broyles.. 04/14/2023

$$

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