Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 08:13:09

FOUS30 KWBC 140813
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Day 1

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA & THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

....South Florida...

Heavy rains yesterday caused some of the major roads in the Fort
Lauderdale to Miami corridor to become flooded. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected to fire up near the coast during
the afternoon and evening hours, which will aggravate the already
sensitive area. A Marginal Risk area was raised for the
coastal/urban areas of southeast Florida.

....Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians...

A deep mid/upper level low is expected to lift northward and
weaken/open into Friday night. Moist easterly flow ahead of the
advancing warm front will bring a surge of higher moisture through
the region, characterized by PWs of up to 1.5 inches. With
available instability (~1000 J/kg CAPE), locally intense rainfall
will be possible across the Piedmont region. A secondary round of
convection is possible during the afternoon/early evening
associated with the main upper level shortwave moving overhead.
The combination of steeper lapse rates and peak heating could
bring another round of heavier showers and thunderstorms. Some of
the hi-res guidance is depicting hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5+
inches/hr across the Carolinas, as well as, eastern Kentucky,
western Virginia and southern West Virginia. The 3-hr FFG are as
low as 1.5 inches in the areas of higher elevation and around
2-2.5 inches elsewhere. The inherited Marginal Risk area was
reshaped to trim out parts of South Carolina where the latest
trends have lowered and then expanded east-west into western
Kentucky, Tennessee and southern West Virginia where intense
rainfall may quickly surpass local FFG and lead to isolated
flooding concerns.

Campbell







Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tMVlm4yL51t114E_-Mo3Sm-nKuDi-1WMOOZEETRAjlq=
3jo7DiQMOmjRohG0RLMahhAJCbwezqzHANKUAZD7n0TCeQw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tMVlm4yL51t114E_-Mo3Sm-nKuDi-1WMOOZEETRAjlq=
3jo7DiQMOmjRohG0RLMahhAJCbwezqzHANKUAZD7PdxwGFo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8tMVlm4yL51t114E_-Mo3Sm-nKuDi-1WMOOZEETRAjlq=
3jo7DiQMOmjRohG0RLMahhAJCbwezqzHANKUAZD7clISqfg$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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