Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 06:15:17

ACUS02 KWNS 140615
SWODY2
SPC AC 140613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging gusts are possible from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley
westward into parts of the Ozarks, Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River
Valley.

....Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex/Sabine River Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains
on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 mid-level jet moves through
the base of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move
into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a cold front advances eastward
across western Kansas and western Oklahoma during the morning. Ahead
of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into the
Ozarks with 60+ surface dewpoints in place by midday across most of
the region. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop quickly ahead of
the cold front during the early to mid afternoon along and near the
instability axis. These storms may organize into a broken line, and
move eastward toward the Mississippi River during the late afternoon
and evening.

NAM forecast soundings by 21Z on Saturday from Springfield southward
to near Little Rock have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in
the 35 to 40 knot range. The thermodynamic environment is impressive
with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This
should be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger
and more dominant supercells. The threat for very large hail is
forecast to be greatest from southwest Missouri southward across
much of western and central Arkansas, into northeast Texas and
northwest Louisiana. Initially, the storms will likely be discrete
resulting in the greater hail threat. However, a line of storms,
along with a wind-damage threat, is expected to develop during the
late afternoon. The line will move eastward toward the Mississippi
River during the early evening, and will affect areas to the east
during the overnight period. A tornado threat will be possible with
supercells and bowing line segments.

The models are now bringing the upper-level trough into the region
slightly slower than previously forecast. This combined with faster
moisture return will result in an instability axis further to the
west. For this reason, have adjusted the Slight Risk westward. Also,
an Enhanced Risk has been added along the zone where the severe
threat is expected to be maximized from far southern Missouri
southward into central Arkansas and far northern Louisiana.

...Broyles.. 04/14/2023

$$

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