Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 14 2023 00:51:46

ACUS01 KWNS 140051
SWODY1
SPC AC 140050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening over parts of
the Southeast, but the threat will continue to lessen. Elsewhere,
locally gusty winds remain possible over parts of the High Plains.

....Discussion...
Storms persist this evening in an arc from far northern MS and AL
into central GA, beneath cool profiles aloft and near a warm front.
Effective SRH near 150 m2/s2 still exists from AL into GA, and may
favor a degree of low-level rotation. However, loss of heating and
modest winds just above the surface suggest the overall severe risk
is diminishing.

Scattered storms continue over much of the eastern FL Peninsula, but
overall storms trends have been down. The air mass remains unstable,
but given the loss of heating, the severe risk should continue to
diminish. Locally gusty winds may still occur.

Elsewhere, high-based convection within the surface trough currently
from NE into western KS will continue to weaken with the loss of
heating. Very little CAPE exists on the 00Z soundings, but existing
showers and evaporation into the dry boundary layer may still yield
strong gusts through the evening.

...Jewell.. 04/14/2023

$$

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