Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0509
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 19:44:38

ACUS11 KWNS 131944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131944=20
FLZ000-132215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Areas affected...southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131944Z - 132215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of storms may intensify further and pose a risk
for severe hail and wind through 5-7 PM EDT.  Due to the anticipated
sparse coverage of this threat, a severe weather watch may not be
needed.  But trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is well underway,
with initiation ongoing near the Atlantic coast, mainly north of
Miami, as well as across interior southern Florida, along the inland
advancing sea-breeze from the Gulf of Mexico.  This is occurring in
the presence of sufficiently strong deep-layer shear (beneath 30 kt
flow around 500 mb) for supercell structures, and sizable
boundary-layer CAPE supported by insolation and dew points above
70F.  While it appears that at least one or two of these storms
could pose a risk for severe hail and wind during the next few
hours, model output is suggestive that somewhat weaker mid/upper
support for ascent relative to northern Florida Atlantic coastal
areas may maintain a more isolated severe weather threat.

...Kerr/Leitman.. 04/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-MDUlTwJyVTCNegEIcu6lQsi3WhfGqln_R45VnD3AbdD69jsO2ICs8W7aVn_nNVsniZbtWLeh=
dLB7YneDFUSXZGWsbo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   28198066 27828024 26707998 25808016 25738074 26478087
            27008074 28198066=20


=3D =3D =3D
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