Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0508
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 18:54:10

ACUS11 KWNS 131854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131853=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-132100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0508
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Areas affected...parts of south central Georgia into central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...

Valid 131853Z - 132100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.

SUMMARY...Occasional thunderstorm intensification, posing some risk
for producing a brief tornado or two, remains possible this
afternoon, perhaps including areas of central Alabama to the west of
the current Tornado Watch.  It is not clear that another severe
weather watch will be needed, however trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Even where low-level hodographs remain modestly large,
primarily across parts of east central Alabama into adjacent
portions of Georgia, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate a
steady shrinking during the next few hours, as the surface cyclone
continues to migrate northwestward into central Mississippi.

However, the front across Georgia remains a focus for occasional
thunderstorm intensification, primarily near the intersection of a
leading, northeastward advancing narrow line of convection.  And,
renewed attempts at deepening convection are ongoing in a narrow
upstream band now pivoting northward across central Alabama through
southwestern Georgia.  It still might not be out of the question
that boundary-layer instability, convergence and ambient vertical
vorticity along the warm frontal zone could contribute to convection
briefly becoming capable of producing a tornado or two.  However, it
is not clear that this potential will increase substantially beyond
what it has been for the past several hours.

...Kerr/Leitman.. 04/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7CHSkNbMAX9pJbc5nPHcdj61AJGKmNFYWxRih7OqMXm3VRyR-ImeI0hzPTOpuEkSd8BacWVi3=
d_nhMEs70tF_h5e_r0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   33328658 32888494 32418339 32258184 31548165 31648354
            31688434 32178524 32738638 33328658=20


=3D =3D =3D
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