Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0507
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 17:47:41

ACUS11 KWNS 131747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131746=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-132015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Areas affected...(parts of northeast and east central Florida
Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131746Z - 132015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development appears
probable by around 4-6 PM EDT, with stronger cells posing a risk for
severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
or two.  A severe weather watch likely will be issued within the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Warming and drying aloft, and within the boundary-layer
(in response to boundary-layer heating and mixing), is impacting
much of northern and central Florida at the moment.  While
destabilization has been sufficient to support ongoing attempts at
thunderstorm development along convective outflow and the sea-breeze
advancing inland of the Gulf coast, the potential for sustained,
vigorous thunderstorms over the northern interior peninsula during
the next few hours appears generally low.

However, as the leading edge of gradual mid-level height falls
overspreads the remainder of the peninsula through mid to late
afternoon, forecast soundings suggest that large-scale forcing for
ascent, coupled with deepening boundary-layer moisture with the
inland advancing Atlantic sea-breeze, may support rapidly
intensifying thunderstorm development by 20-22Z.  Although low-level
wind fields and hodographs will remain modest to weak, mid-level
flow appears strong enough to support supercell structures as
mixed-layer CAPE increases to 1500-2000 J/kg.  While a brief tornado
or two may not be out of the question, stronger cells will mostly
pose a risk for severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind
gusts into early evening before diminishing.

...Kerr/Leitman.. 04/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_1YfK1EYaGYt1Z36I1ZFFqNidJorkF58s2TwfOYR8DLnCzLITQ7Rfs31mIYPe-1oiInJIjuye=
3-juUwbt-Erk5JkAjU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   28568055 28258110 28538152 29648192 30798200 30668135
            29408096 28568055=20


=3D =3D =3D
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