Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 17:32:39 ACUS02 KWNS 131732 SWODY2 SPC AC 131730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, and possibly a few damaging gusts, appear most likely to occur across portions of southeast Nebraska and into eastern Kansas Friday. ....Synopsis... While a weakening upper low shifts northeastward out of the Tennessee Valley, a larger trough will advance gradually eastward across the Intermountain West through the period. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front -- associated with the western upper trough -- which is forecast to make eastward/southeastward progress across the Plains through the period. ....Central Plains... While lack of moisture beneath an elevated mixed layer will allow rather stout capping to persist through much of the afternoon, a couple of storms may initiate near the advancing cold front by late in the day. Given amply strong/veering flow, in tandem with the steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail would be possible, along with a locally damaging gust or two. While storms may try to grow upscale locally, capping should tend to hinder robust/warm sector MCS development. To the cool side of the front, storms should increase across Kansas and Nebraska into the evening, as a southerly low-level jet develops. With these elevated storms, large hail will be a primary concern into the overnight hours. ....Southern Plains... In part due to modest boundary-layer moisture, a capping inversion at the base of an elevated mixed-layer will hinder afternoon convective development in most areas. A weak mid-level perturbation on the southeastern fringe of the advancing western U.S. trough may aid in a few local breaches of the cap -- with portions of eastern North Texas one area where a couple of cells may briefly develop. Any storm which could organize, would be capable of producing large hail and locally gusty winds. However, will maintain only low/conditional risk due to the strength of capping expected. ....The Carolinas vicinity... As a weakening upper low shifts northeastward out of the Tennessee Valley toward the central Appalachians, early-day convection is forecast to spread northeastward across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. In the wake of these storms, some diurnal heating to occur, beneath steepening lapse rates aloft associated with the upper system. This should lead to a regeneration of showers and scattered thunderstorms with a noted diurnal peak in coverage/intensity. While shear should remain somewhat limited, in terms of potential for well-organized storms, a few stronger multicell-type clusters may produce marginal hail, and wind gusts locally capable of tree damage. Risk should diminish through the evening hours. ...Goss.. 04/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .