Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 16:05:36 ACUS01 KWNS 131605 SWODY1 SPC AC 131604 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, along with damaging gusts and isolated large hail, are possible today across parts of the Southeast. Isolated severe gusts also are possible this afternoon over the central High Plains. ....Southeast... An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will slowly drift east/northeast through the period. This will maintain southeasterly low-level flow across much of FL/GA and vicinity. A dry slot wrapping around the mid/upper low noted over the northern Gulf and nosing into the FL Panhandle/southern GA late this morning is expected to continue spreading northward through the day. Forecast guidance varies considerably with regard to midlevel moisture and amount of low/midlevel mixing across parts of AL/GA. Given current water vapor imagery, it appears drying across AL seems reasonable with more uncertainty with eastward extent across GA. Further east, southeasterly flow should maintain better boundary-layer moisture compared to further west. Surface dewpoints across northern FL are noted in the mid 60s to near 70 F as of 15z, and surface dewpoints have increased around 4 F over the past 3 hours across southern GA. Continual warm/moist advection into southern GA should result in a zone of quality boundary-layer moisture amid modest vertical shear in the vicinity of a quasi-warm front/confluence zone across southern GA. This area may see greater potential for a few tornadoes through this afternoon. Additionally, supercell wind profiles combined with steep low-level lapse rates amid pockets of stronger heating also will support damaging gusts from parts of AL/GA southward along the eastern coast of FL. Isolated large hail also will be possible with cellular convection across parts of AL/GA, and along the northeast/east-central FL coast. ....High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon near the lee trough, in a zone of favorable heating and low-level convergence. Modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 40s F) with steep low/middle-level lapse rates will support modest destabilization. The main concern will be locally strong to severe downdrafts accelerating through the well-mixed subcloud layer. Low-level stabilization should reduce the convective/severe potential with time during early evening. ...Leitman/Weinman.. 04/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .