Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0506
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 15:01:37

ACUS11 KWNS 131501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131500=20
GAZ000-131700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Areas affected...parts of northern Florida through southwestern/west
central Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...

Valid 131500Z - 131700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for occasional thunderstorm intensification
accompanied by potential for relatively short-lived tornadoes will
develop northward and eastward into southern Georgia through early
afternoon.   Trends are being monitored for the possibility of an
additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is
slowly pivoting north-northeastward and eastward, now well east of a
modest surface cyclone migrating north-northwestward across
southwestern Alabama.  This convective band appears focused along a
lower/mid-tropospheric confluence zone, perhaps coincident with the
leading edge of cooling around the 700 mb level.  However, this
remains beneath relatively warm and dry layers aloft, to the east of
the mid-level cold core centered over southern Louisiana.

Boundary-layer moisture also remains rather modest inland of coastal
areas, but some gradual moistening, coupled with insolation, is
contributing to at least weak destabilization ahead of the
convection, and south of a warm front now in the process of
advancing across and north of the Florida/Georgia border vicinity.=20
Although trends in area VWP data appear to support Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings indicating shrinking low-level hodographs across
the region, the warm front could provide a focus for at least
short-lived thunderstorm intensification and potential for tornado
development, where it is intersected by the convective band, as both
advance northeastward through 17-19Z.

...Kerr.. 04/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4KNLIoUs9bOp5drrySHuAsexHB-gcEKHKYNs0mlJwWmKoULBXwksifAgaZ-IRJSD0AzN4NZ0N=
SG10TvFWAT0DZYnajc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31608494 32068443 31608277 31158210 30728282 30928417
            31608494=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.