Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0505
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 10:11:06

ACUS11 KWNS 131011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131010=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-131245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131010Z - 131245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for tornadic mini supercells will probably
develop as updrafts move ashore this morning.  The timing for a
possible watch is still uncertain.  The supercell threat will likely
focus over Gulf, Bay, and Walton counties initially.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a north-south band of
low-topped storms arcing from near Panama City Beach to south of
Apalachicola early this morning.  A surface low is analyzed to the
south of the AL/FL Panhandle border over the continental shelf.  A
warm/maritime front is slowly advancing northward and is draped
generally west-east.  Near and south of the boundary, surface
dewpoints are in the 68-70 deg F range with drier air currently over
the FL Panhandle (60 deg F inland to near 65 at the beaches).  As
the warm front penetrates the beaches and coastal plain this
morning, the development of surface-based buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE) collocated with with enlarged low-level hodographs
(reference KTLH and KEVX VAD data), the stronger updrafts moving
ashore will probably acquire low-level mesocyclone-strength rotation
and may pose an isolated tornado risk.  Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible tornado watch, although timing of a watch
is still uncertain.

...Smith/Edwards.. 04/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-TwgCTsGnMB_zWZEj4bTXLujXr2yLNRiE2ODmlRRyq3O85GzdBWm2sx3-k17CGyukfJt1W6Md=
IESxe6IFc7x6HH7pUc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30188697 30678696 30818384 29708335 29658411 29328530
            29958592 30188697=20


=3D =3D =3D
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