Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 08:44:35

ACUS48 KWNS 130844
SWOD48
SPC AC 130843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will progress from the Mid MS Valley to the Upper Great Lakes on
D4/Sunday, maturing as it does. Thunderstorms are possible over the
Upper OH Valley as the cold front associated with this shortwave
pushes eastward. A few stronger storms are possible along this
front, particularly across OH where the best combination of buoyancy
and shear is anticipated. Thunderstorms will remain possible as the
front continues eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, but limited buoyancy
should keep storm intensity low.

Moisture scouring from the frontal passage will result in stable
conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS on
D5/Monday. Low-level moisture may begin returning across the
southern and central Plains and Lower MS Valley late D5/Monday and
D6/Tuesday, ahead of a low-latitude shortwave trough expected to
move across the southern High Plains on D6/Tuesday. Current guidance
suggests only limited low-level moisture will precede this
shortwave, creating capping issues as the shortwave moves through.

Despite relatively good agreement that low-level moisture advection
will continue on D7/Wednesday, guidance diverges with evolution of
the upper pattern after D6/Tuesday. This limits forecast confidence
for D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

...Mosier.. 04/13/2023

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