Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 08:18:19 FOUS30 KWBC 130818 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 13 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 14 2023 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... The closed, deep layered low centered over southern Louisiana early this morning will begin to lift north/northeastward today into tonight, taking on a negative tilt later in the period as it becomes absorbed ahead of the approaching longwave trough back over the Plains. A broad area of ascent will be found across the Southeast along and downstream of the advancing low while at the surface, a warm front begins to lift northward through Florida into Georgia. Moist easterly flow ahead of that boundary and then southwesterly flow in its wake overrunning the boundary will bring a surge of higher moisture through the region, characterized by PWs of 1.25-1.5". With roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE present overlapping with the higher moisture, the ingredients are in place for pockets of locally heavy rainfall and intense rain rates (locally exceeding 1-1.5"/hr) from the central Gulf Coast through portions of the Southeast. While most of the convection is likely to be somewhat progressive with a fast mean flow, the unidirectional mean flow and higher 850 mb inflow suggests some potential for backbuilding. Localized totals of 2-4" appear likely within the Marginal Risk. Generally this is over areas with higher flash flood guidance, thus only expected isolated/localized instances of flash flooding. For this issuance, the Marginal Risk was expanded to cover the urbanized corridor of southeast Florida, where extreme rainfall occurred yesterday/last evening. While the 00Z hi-res guidance and HREF suggests greater risk of intense rainfall will be further north along the FL Peninsula, there is a signal that a trailing convergence area could focus additional afternoon/evening thunderstorms again over S. Florida. Taylor Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 14 2023 - 12Z Sat Apr 15 2023 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... The deep mid/upper level low will begin to open up and weaken as it progresses further to the northeast Friday into Friday night, though with the anomalous moisture in place (upwards of 1.5" PWs) and available instability (1000 J/kg CAPE), locally intense rainfall will be possible across initially the SC Piedmont initially the reaching the NC Piedmont late morning. A secondary round of convection is possible during the afternoon/early evening associated with the main upper level shortwave moving overhead. The combination of steeper lapse rates and peak heating could bring another round of heavier showers and thunderstorms. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr at times both in the morning and afternoon rounds will be possible and the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows potential for isolated 2-3" totals. Recent rainfall has primed the soils somewhat and makes the area a little more susceptible to flooding with both soil moisture and streamflows running 75-90 percent above average for mid-April. The combination of the wetter soils over the more urbanized areas of the SC/NC Piedmont may lead to a few instances of flash flooding during the period. Taylor Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Wix49Ij2hRPoGW20pVkbr5_DIU1R9ggtOZzcnrgTT_y= x-ETF63WNHEH4fUSpCXMWBKq9IAw9p4nZwg0K6L5CBdPW8o$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Wix49Ij2hRPoGW20pVkbr5_DIU1R9ggtOZzcnrgTT_y= x-ETF63WNHEH4fUSpCXMWBKq9IAw9p4nZwg0K6L5KRPjF7E$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-Wix49Ij2hRPoGW20pVkbr5_DIU1R9ggtOZzcnrgTT_y= x-ETF63WNHEH4fUSpCXMWBKq9IAw9p4nZwg0K6L5dm4SuUs$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .