Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 08:17:53

FOUS30 KWBC 130817
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 13 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 14 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

The closed, deep layered low centered over southern Louisiana
early this morning will begin to lift north/northeastward today
into tonight, taking on a negative tilt later in the period as it
becomes absorbed ahead of the approaching longwave trough back
over the Plains. A broad area of ascent will be found across the
Southeast along and downstream of the advancing low while at the
surface, a warm front begins to lift northward through Florida
into Georgia. Moist easterly flow ahead of that boundary and then
southwesterly flow in its wake overrunning the boundary will bring
a surge of higher moisture through the region, characterized by
PWs of 1.25-1.5". With roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE present
overlapping with the higher moisture, the ingredients are in place
for pockets of locally heavy rainfall and intense rain rates
(locally exceeding 1-1.5"/hr) from the central Gulf Coast through
portions of the Southeast. While most of the convection is likely
to be somewhat progressive with a fast mean flow, the
unidirectional mean flow and higher 850 mb inflow suggests some
potential for backbuilding. Localized totals of 2-4" appear likely
within the Marginal Risk. Generally this is over areas with higher
flash flood guidance, thus only expected isolated/localized
instances of flash flooding. For this issuance, the Marginal Risk
was expanded to cover the urbanized corridor of southeast Florida,
where extreme rainfall occurred yesterday/last evening. While the
00Z hi-res guidance and HREF suggests greater risk of intense
rainfall will be further north along the FL Peninsula, there is a
signal that a trailing convergence area could focus additional
afternoon/evening thunderstorms again over S. Florida.

Taylor


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9X19H4f3Ad0411iotFb3tCVVJlcj1ooGqupjufllRBTU=
Zl7sgXRdBNeYdzftbbHg7uSmFjzTtA8pGrk9IQWRPS0cOsY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9X19H4f3Ad0411iotFb3tCVVJlcj1ooGqupjufllRBTU=
Zl7sgXRdBNeYdzftbbHg7uSmFjzTtA8pGrk9IQWRKuogGOk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9X19H4f3Ad0411iotFb3tCVVJlcj1ooGqupjufllRBTU=
Zl7sgXRdBNeYdzftbbHg7uSmFjzTtA8pGrk9IQWRoyPQdWw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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