Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 07:27:07 ACUS03 KWNS 130727 SWODY3 SPC AC 130726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO FAR EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are possible from the Mid Mississippi Valley into far East Texas and northern Louisiana on Saturday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive cold front will likely extend from western WI southwestward into the TX Hill Country early Saturday morning. This front is forecast to make gradual eastward/southeastward progression throughout the day, while low-level moisture increases ahead of it. By Saturday afternoon, mid 60s dewpoints are possible as far north as the Mid-South, with low 60s dewpoints reaching into central MO and southern IL. Steep mid-level lapse rates will precede this front from east TX into Mid MS Valley. Underlying capping will likely prevent convective initiation through the morning and into the early afternoon. As the front is gradually progresses eastward, a shortwave trough will be moving eastward across KS, OK, and north TX, and into the Mid MS Valley. Large-scale ascent will increase ahead of this shortwave from the Mid-South into the Mid MS Valley during the late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, convective inhibition along and ahead of the front will continue to erode amid persistent low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating. This weakening convective inhibition, coupled with increasing large-scale ascent and lift along the front, is expected to result in thunderstorm development along and ahead of the front, from the Mid MS Valley down into the Arklatex and east TX. Given the steep lapse rates and strong buoyancy, initial updrafts should be quite strong and capable of both large hail (some potentially very large) and damaging gusts. Severe potential is expected to continue downstream during the evening and overnight as the front continues to push eastward. ...Mosier.. 04/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .