Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Apr 13 2023 06:05:04 ACUS01 KWNS 130605 SWODY1 SPC AC 130603 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA...AND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are most likely today from parts of Alabama into Georgia extending southeastward across the eastern Florida Peninsula. Potential will exist for a few tornadoes, hail and gusty winds. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible over the central High Plains. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude upper low will move from LA toward the TN Valley on Thursday as an upper trough moves from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The parent shortwave trough will aid deep-layer shear across the region, with 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterlies extending from the Gulf of Mexico into AL/GA/FL. At the surface, a low will occlude as it moves from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico across AL, with a warm front progressing north into central AL and GA by late afternoon. South of this boundary, 60s F dewpoints will be common beneath cool temperatures, and this will support scattered daytime storms, some severe. To the west, low pressure will develop from northeast CO into western NE, with a trough extending south into the TX Panhandle. Despite minimal moisture, at least isolated storms appear likely. ....AL into GA and northern FL... Daytime heating and rising dewpoints behind the warm front will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extending from AL into GA and much of FL, from midday through late afternoon. Areas of thunderstorms are most likely early in the day from southern MS into southern AL, with expanding coverage and intensity peaking during the late afternoon. Effective SRH near the warm front of 100-200 m2/s2 will be common, and will support a few supercells. The occluding low and cross-boundary deep-layer shear will promote cellular activity. Therefore, a few tornadoes may occur, along with hail and locally strong gusts. ....Eastern FL Peninsula... Ample instability will develop today, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints 500 mb temperatures averaging near -11 C. Tall CAPE profiles and MLCAPE values over 1500 J/kg will be common, and this will support vigorous updrafts during the peak heating hours over the FL Peninsula. Storms should be focused over eastern portions of the area, within a weak surface trough and where convergence will be maximized. Weak low-level winds will minimize SRH, but veering with height and degree of instability may result in transient supercells capable of hail, strong downbursts, and even a brief tornado. ....Central High Plains... Strong heating along with convergence within the surface trough will lead to isolated storms from early afternoon over eastern CO into the western TX Panhandle into western NE and KS through 00Z. Inverted-V soundings may support downdraft potential, despite only 40s dewpoints and a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. This activity should be largely diurnal, and will wane during the early evening. ...Jewell/Wendt.. 04/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .